Thanks for catching this. The trade is long DOW and WLK, short AMCR, unchanged from Short The Packagers. The May 6 DOW move came on de-escalation pricing alongside oil-beta. Structural long thesis on Permian ethane intact. Updated.
May 11 Senate floor vote sits inside your 10Y / 4.4% falsification window. Powell's chair term ends May 15. Polymarket Warsh-by-resolution near 99%, Kalshi by June 96% the transition is priced. Variable is execution: confirmed week of May 11, or Powell as Chair pro tem after May 15 with the same FOMC vote.
Falsification criterion as written reads "without diplomatic news flow." The Senate print contaminates that. A confirmation or a pro tem sequence pushes term premium on Fed reaction function regardless of where Plan A/B/C lands. 10Y at 4.34 today, 6bps below the threshold, with the discrete event eight days out. The Gromen observation isn't dead it's unreadable through this window.
Cleaner if you split the Cash Not Bonds prints. FRBNY custody Thursday is the carry signal. Senate floor week is the chair-transition signal. They can diverge.
Second-order beneath the active book: HY and IG at 25-year tights, leveraged loans 2.5x first-lien. Credit inversion is the Plan C transmission belt that doesn't show up in petchem or tankers leveraged loan channel into mid-cap vol on a single wide-priced deal. Same regime, different mechanism.
Incredible, we got the scenario where we're firing rockets at each other, but gaslit into thinking the ceasefire still applies lol
Wasn't the trade in Short the Packagers was long DOW not short?
Thanks for catching this. The trade is long DOW and WLK, short AMCR, unchanged from Short The Packagers. The May 6 DOW move came on de-escalation pricing alongside oil-beta. Structural long thesis on Permian ethane intact. Updated.
Thanks
May 11 Senate floor vote sits inside your 10Y / 4.4% falsification window. Powell's chair term ends May 15. Polymarket Warsh-by-resolution near 99%, Kalshi by June 96% the transition is priced. Variable is execution: confirmed week of May 11, or Powell as Chair pro tem after May 15 with the same FOMC vote.
Falsification criterion as written reads "without diplomatic news flow." The Senate print contaminates that. A confirmation or a pro tem sequence pushes term premium on Fed reaction function regardless of where Plan A/B/C lands. 10Y at 4.34 today, 6bps below the threshold, with the discrete event eight days out. The Gromen observation isn't dead it's unreadable through this window.
Cleaner if you split the Cash Not Bonds prints. FRBNY custody Thursday is the carry signal. Senate floor week is the chair-transition signal. They can diverge.
Second-order beneath the active book: HY and IG at 25-year tights, leveraged loans 2.5x first-lien. Credit inversion is the Plan C transmission belt that doesn't show up in petchem or tankers leveraged loan channel into mid-cap vol on a single wide-priced deal. Same regime, different mechanism.
Kill switch is doubled, not contradicted.
What are your thoughts on XOM and CVX?