Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate both of you flagging it. We use AI to assist with prose and narrative, which drifted here. I've rewritten it, cut the filler and tightened the sentences. Let me know if anything still reads badly. The analysis and data are completely ours. AI cannot go to Oman and discuss with industry professionals.
This is the best analysis I've seen on where the crisis cost actually migrated — the invoice-level detail on war-risk premiums and the 3-8% hull-value range is exactly the kind of thing the price-watchers are missing. One framework that might sharpen the restart side of your analysis: the production coming back isn't one number, it's four different speeds. Saudi's Rung 1 barrels restarted in weeks. Iraq's Rung 2 barrels need months of systematic repressurization. Iran's oldest fields may never restart at current prices — and today's waiver revocation just made those barrels unsellable on top of being uneconomic. Your point about insurance premiums being "quick to go up and slow to come down" applies to the production side too — wells that shut in for four months don't restart in four weeks, and the reservoir damage compounds with time.
A wonderful narrative but it’s a lot of words to say “I goofed on my oil call”.
Didn't do that
I think many of us “goofed” on our calls. Those who didn’t, enjoyed a mix of ignorance and good luck.
Thank you for such detailed insights, helping to lift the fog of war
Thanks!
Do you wrote in tongues sure feels like AI I have a hard time deciphering the implications in your articles
Its very slop-ey. I am a paid sub and honestly will not renew unless he cleans this up. Its actually painful
Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate both of you flagging it. We use AI to assist with prose and narrative, which drifted here. I've rewritten it, cut the filler and tightened the sentences. Let me know if anything still reads badly. The analysis and data are completely ours. AI cannot go to Oman and discuss with industry professionals.
Thank you for your words!
This is the best analysis I've seen on where the crisis cost actually migrated — the invoice-level detail on war-risk premiums and the 3-8% hull-value range is exactly the kind of thing the price-watchers are missing. One framework that might sharpen the restart side of your analysis: the production coming back isn't one number, it's four different speeds. Saudi's Rung 1 barrels restarted in weeks. Iraq's Rung 2 barrels need months of systematic repressurization. Iran's oldest fields may never restart at current prices — and today's waiver revocation just made those barrels unsellable on top of being uneconomic. Your point about insurance premiums being "quick to go up and slow to come down" applies to the production side too — wells that shut in for four months don't restart in four weeks, and the reservoir damage compounds with time.
Well done! Do you have a sense of the add to the per barrel price all in for the risk and admin?